Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

April 8, 2026

Key Takeaways:

• Warmest March: The contiguous U.S. (CONUS) average temperature was 9.4°F above the 20th-century average, making March 2026 the warmest March in the 132-year record.
• Prolonged warmth: The April 2025–March 2026 period now stands as the warmest 12-month span ever recorded for the CONUS (since 1895).
• Record daily heat: 1,432 counties—over half the CONUS area and one-third of the population—observed their single warmest March day on record (1950–present).

• Record-dry year to date: The January–March period was the driest on record for the CONUS—less than 70% of average—breaking the previous record set in 1910.
• Notable drought footprint: Dry conditions expanded drought to nearly 60 percent of the CONUS—the largest extent of drought since November 2022.
• Cold in Alaska: Alaska had its fourth-coldest March on record (since 1925) and the coldest since 2007.

Other Highlights:

Temperature

The CONUS average temperature in March was 50.85°F, 9.35°F above the 20th-century average, marking the first time any month’s average has exceeded 9°F above that baseline. Maximum daytime temperatures were especially high, averaging 11.4°F above the March average and 0.9°F above the April long-term average.

Much of the country south of the far northern tier, from the Pacific to the Atlantic, experienced much-above-average temperatures. A broad region spanning the central Pacific Coast, Great Basin, Southwest, and parts of the Rockies and southern Plains observed record warmth, highlighting the widespread extent of the month’s exceptional temperatures.

Ten states recorded their warmest March on record: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Across all of these states, average temperatures exceeded their respective April averages, with California also eclipsing its average May temperature by 0.7°F.

At the county level, more than 500 counties—covering over one-quarter of the CONUS and affecting an estimated 79 million people—recorded their warmest March on record, reflecting the broad geographic footprint of the month’s record warmth.

Hawai‘i’s statewide average temperature was 65.0°F, 1.5°F above the 1991–2020 average, ranking as the fifth-warmest March in the 36-year record. Daytime temperatures were near average, but statewide average minimum temperatures stood out at 59.2°F—the warmest March nighttime temperatures on record (1991–present), more than 1°F above the previous record set in 2006.

In contrast, Alaska’s statewide average temperature was 0.6°F, 10.2°F below the 1925–2000 average. While the North Slope remained near average, much of the state experienced much-below-average temperatures, with parts of the southeast interior, southern coast and panhandle recording record-cold conditions. Minimum temperatures were especially notable, ranking as the third-coldest March on record and the coldest since 1972.

Precipitation 

The average precipitation total for the CONUS in March was 1.83 inches, 0.68 inch below the 20th-century average, ranking as the eighth-driest March in the 132-year record. Combined with January and February deficits, this period marks the driest first three months of any year on record for the CONUS.

March precipitation was much below average across much of the West, Southwest, portions of the Plains, Deep South and Southeast. In contrast, above-average precipitation totals fell across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, as well as across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

In total, nine states across the Lower-48 ranked among their 10-driest Marches. California received less than a quarter-inch of precipitation statewide—less than 10% of its 20th-century March average and the lowest March total in the 132-year record. Colorado and New Mexico each tied their second-driest March on record, while North and South Carolina each experienced one of their five-driest Marches. In contrast, Michigan received nearly twice its average March precipitation—its third-highest March total on record.

Simultaneously hot and dry conditions affected 12 states, where much-above-average temperatures occurred alongside much-below-average precipitation, with potential impacts on snowpack and water resources in the coming months. California exemplified these extremes, recording both its warmest and driest March on record.

Precipitation across Hawai‘i was much above average for the month, with many areas—including large portions of the Big Island, Maui, Moloka‘i and O‘ahu—experiencing their wettest March on record (since 1991). This exceptional wetness was driven by back-to-back Kona low systems mid-month that triggered widespread major flooding and landslides across the island chain.

Alaska’s statewide precipitation was much lower than average, especially over portions of the Southwest, the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians. However, the cold air over mainland Alaska brought above-average snowfall to much of Southeast Alaska, with several locations recording their highest March totals in more than a decade.

Drought

According to the March 31 U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 59.9% of the CONUS was in drought, an increase of about 5.0% from the beginning of the month. Drought conditions persisted or intensified across much of the interior West, the Plains, Mississippi Valley, South and Southeast, with notable degradation across the Rockies and central Plains. In contrast, drought contracted or eased across portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

Monthly Outlook

Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS for April, with the highest probabilities centered over the Great Basin, Four Corners region and parts of the Southeast. Above-average precipitation is favored for a corridor stretching from the southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into the Northeast, while drier-than-average conditions are forecast for the West and parts of the central Rockies and Southeast. Above-average temperatures and precipitation are indicated for northern and western parts of Alaska. Visit the Climate Prediction Center’s Official 30-Day Forecastsfor more details.

Drought is expected to persist and expand across much of the interior West, Southwest, Rockies and High Plains, as well as parts of the South, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. However, some improvement or drought removal is forecast for parts of the southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Northeast. Visit the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook website for more details.

Significant wildland fire potential is above normal across portions of the Southwest, southern Plains and central High Plains and much of the Deep South and Southeast. For additional information on wildland fire potential, visit the National Interagency Fire Center’s One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook.

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For more detailed climate information, check out our comprehensive March 2026 U.S. Climate Report scheduled for release on April 13, 2026. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the Climate at a Glance and National Maps webpages.

Click the link to read the briefing on the Western Water Assessment website:

April 9, 2026 – CO, UT, WY

March weather conditions promoted rapid intensification of snow drought. Snowpack peaked three to nine weeks early and sits at record low levels at most locations in Colorado, Utah and much of Wyoming. Record low snowpack was driven by low March precipitation and record hot March temperatures. Consequently, drought conditions expanded to cover 93% of the region, and annual streamflow volume forecasts are much below normal with 22% of normal inflow forecasted for Lake Powell.

March precipitation was below average for nearly the entire region. Large areas of less than 50% of average March precipitation were observed in all three states with the least precipitation falling in eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Record low March precipitation was observed in Baca, Bent, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Las Animas, Prowers, and San Juan Counties in Colorado. Water year precipitation varied with above average precipitation in northwestern Wyoming, southern Colorado and southern Utah, while much of the remainder of the region received 50-90% of average water year precipitation.

An extreme and widespread heat wave hit the region during March, and temperatures were 9-12 degrees above average for much of the region. Record high March temperatures were observed at the majority of locations in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. All-time maximum March temperatures were set across the region with many locations recording higher temperatures than all-time April records.

April 1 SWE conditions were record-low for all regional river basins, except those in northwestern Wyoming. On a statewide basis, record-low snowpack was observed in Colorado (24% median), Utah (22% median), and Wyoming (47% median). Snowpack in many southern Colorado and southern Utah watersheds has melted up to 65 days early, including the Upper Arkansas, Upper Dolores, and Upper Gunnison River basins in Colorado and the Dirty Devil, Escalante, Price, and San Pitch River basins in Utah. Record heat and low precipitation in March caused regional snowpack to peak nearly one month early. Typically, on April 1, only three of 213 Snotel sites in Colorado and two of 179 sites in Utah are melted out completely. On April 1, 2026, 36% of Snotel sites in Colorado, 60% of sites in Utah, and 28% of 196 sites in Wyoming were melted out. The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River basin peaked at a record low percent of median peak SWE and was 27% of median on April 1.

After low and early peak snowpack, annual streamflow volume forecasts were much below average on April 1. Annual streamflow volume forecasts ranged from 25-45% of average in Colorado, 20-55% of average in Utah and 25-100% of average in Wyoming. The inflow to Lake Powell is forecasted at 22% of average (1.4 million acre-feet). Regional streamflow forecasts were highest in the Snake and Missouri River basins of northern Wyoming where streamflow volume forecasts ranged from 65-100% of average.

Regional drought intensified during March, and 93% of the region is experiencing severe drought conditions. Extreme drought conditions developed across a broad swath of Utah, western Colorado and southeastern Wyoming, and now cover 45% of the region. Drought in western Colorado worsened by two to three categories, and exceptional drought developed in northwestern Colorado where exceptional drought conditions coincided with the 137,000-acre Lee Fire in August 2025.

Pacific Ocean temperatures have warmed, and ENSO-neutral conditions (ocean temperatures are within 0.5ºC of average) now exist. Warming sea surface temperatures prompt an 80% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June, and NOAA issuing an El Niño Watch. ENSO forecasts predict a 60% chance of El Niño conditions developing by May-July and continuing through the end of 2026. There is a 25% chance of a very strong El Niño developing during the beginning of the 2027 water year. NOAA seasonal forecasts for April-June suggest an increased probability for below average precipitation and up to a 70% probability for above average temperatures.

Significant weather event: March heat wave. The heat wave during March 2026 was unprecedented in the western U.S. climate records since 1895. March 2026 average temperatures shattered records in Colorado (by 4.3ºF), Utah (by 5.5ºF), and Wyoming (by 2ºF). Amongst weather monitoring sites with at least 50 years of data, new March temperature records were set at 85% of sites in Colorado, 82% of sites in Utah and 60% of sites in Wyoming. In Utah, previous March temperature records were exceeded by 9.7ºF in Alta and 8.9ºF in Escalante. New all-time maximum March temperature records were set at 80-90% of weather sites in Colorado and Utah, and at 70% of sites in Wyoming. At many locations in Colorado and Utah, new March temperature records exceeded April maximum temperature records. Maximum March 2026 temperatures along the Front Range of Colorado reached the 90s with Burlington, CO recording 99ºF on March 26. Extremely high March temperatures were present across the majority of the West, and record statewide March temperatures were set in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. A new record March temperature was also set for the contiguous U.S.

Click the link to read the commentary on the Colorado Newsline website (Quentin Young):

April 9, 2026

So many crises threaten society these days. Daily news about war, the emergence of AI, runaway costs of living, the threat of new pandemics, the growing dangers of fascism in Washington — it’s a deluge of worry, and it can be hard to think about much else.

But the pile of troubles in recent years has diverted attention from the long-term crisis of climate change, arguably humanity’s supreme challenge, which is not going away just because it gets less attention. Some commentators have suggested that no one has the bandwidth anymore to think about climate change. But climate change doesn’t care about your bandwidth, and conditions in Colorado prove the point. [ed. emphasis mine]

The state just had its warmest winter on record by almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and average temperatures from December through February were more than 8 degrees above the 20th century average, as Newslinereported last month. Cities up and down the Front Range saw record-high numbers of 60-degree days this winter. The state is also fantastically dry, part of an aridification process driven by global warming.

As reporter Chase Woodruff wrote, “Hotter, drier conditions in Colorado have stressed water supplies, made the state’s forests more vulnerable to insects and diseases, and greatly increased wildfire risk.”

Waterways in Colorado this year are universally expected to see below-normal flows, including the Colorado River, which is forecast to run at just 68% of normal. The Colorado River, a vital resource for 40 million people, this century has experienced critical streamflow depletions. The river is down 20% from historic annual averages. Some projections suggest Lake Powell, a crucial reservoir on the river, could dropfor the first time below the minimum level needed for it to produce hydropower at the Glen Canyon Dam, energy generation relied on by almost 6 million people.

Low snowpack that’s contributing to streamflow shortages is also a blow to the Colorado ski industry, which generates $4.8 billion a year and supports more than 46,000 jobs across the state. At the current trajectory, the industry will disappear by the end of the century. Climate modeling shows the ski season could be shortened by more than a month by 2050 and more than two months by 2090. And it’s not just less snow — climate change is to blame for increasingly poor snow.

The latest forecasts suggest Coloradans should brace for more brutal wildfires this year. Hot and dry conditions, along with low moisture content in vegetative fuels, are already at levels on the Front Range typical of peak fire season. Worsening conditions as summer unfolds will further increase the state’s vulnerability to wildfires. Tinderbox conditions are becoming the norm: The three largest wildfires in Colorado history all occurred in 2020, and the state’s 20 biggest fires have all occurred in the past 20 years.

There is no scientific doubt that climate change contributes to bigger, fiercer wildfires and other extreme ecological events, and there is no scientific doubt that the primary cause of climate change is the human combustion of fossil fuels.

Yet government policies, especially as guided by MAGA priorities, reject the science. In February, the Trump administration revoked the so-called endangerment finding, which recognized the dangers of greenhouse gas emissions and allowed climate regulations under the Clean Air Act. The administration is forcing coal-fired power generation in Colorado to persist past a planned retirement date, apparently to accommodate coal business interests.

Climate change so far has not figured prominently in 2026 statewide elections. The platforms of the top Democratic candidates for governor, U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser, both mention climate change as a problem to confront. But Bennet touts a “market-based path to cut emissions” that resembles the disappointing carrot-over-stick approach of the administration of Gov. Jared Polis, under whom the state has failed to meet its own greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. 

Many Coloradans fear the federal government, and they’re struggling to pay for housing, health care and other necessities, while national and world events seem ever more alarming. But, though it usually doesn’t produce spectacular daily headlines, climate change threatens eventually to leave whole regions of the Earth uninhabitable.

The worst effects of climate change can still be avoided, but only if voters insist leaders address it with the emergency response it demands.

Click the link to read the report on the NRCS website and to drill down into your favorite Colorado major basin summary. Here’s an excerpt:

Click the link to read the release on the NRCS website:

April 9, 2026

In a typical year, early April marks the transition into peak snowpack. Accumulation is still ongoing, particularly across the central and northern mountains, and runoff has yet to fully begin. This year, that sequence has shifted. Snowpack peak snow water equivalent (SWE) timing occurred early, with many basins reaching maximum SWE in late-February to mid-March. In the San Juan Mountains, peak SWE was largely driven by a late February storm, after which snowpack shifted into net melt through March rather than functioning as a late-season accumulation period.  

As of April 9, 2026, statewide SWE is 22 percent of median, following a brief increase to 26 percent after early April storms. While beneficial at the site level, these storms did not change conditions and sites have resumed melt-out patterns.  

Statewide SWE declined from 60 percent of median from March 1, 2026 to 20 percent of median by April 1, 2026. The most rapid decline occurred during a concentrated melt period from mid to late March, when sustained record temperatures drove accelerated depletion across the network. During this interval, SWE declined at an average rate of 0.25 inches per day. March temperature data averaged roughly 9°F above normal, with 26 days exceeding median. Rather than intermittent melt cycles, snowpack experienced sustained energy input, accelerating SWE loss across elevations, including high-elevation zones that typically remain stable into April.  

Across the Colorado monitoring network, snowpack is clustered at the lower end of the observing SNOTEL period. As of the end March, 103 of 117 sites are reporting values at or near the 0^th percentile with 95 percent of sites at the lowest or second lowest values. This pattern extends beyond Colorado, with SNOTEL sites across the Intermountain West averaging near the 12^th percentile at the end of March.  [ed. emphasis mine]

March streamflow observations are above median across much of Colorado. Outside of the eastern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where flows are closer to 58 percent of median, many basins are averaging 140 percent above median. Under normal conditions, above median runoff would indicate strong water supply. This reflects a shift in timing and a reduction in total volume. Snowmelt that would typically contribute to April through July runoff (primary period) is now entering into river systems. Several headwater locations are approaching or have reached seasonal peak streamflow flow timing weeks earlier than average. Early flows may appear favorable in the short term, but in this case may represent a compression of the runoff period rather than an increase in total seasonal supply.  

At the 50 percent outlook, primary period runoff is expected to fall 11.4 million acre-feet (MAF) below median runoff volume statewide, with 9.4 MAF of that deficit concentrated in western slope basins, including the Colorado Headwaters, Gunnison, Yampa-White-Litte Snake and San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan (SMDASJ) basins. The 30 percent forecast remains well below median, while the 70 and 90 percent forecasts reduce volumes further, with Colorado Headwaters ranging from 3.5 to 4.8 MAF below median across the outlook range.  

April-July runoff forecasts at the 50 percent exceedance probability are in the range of 27-35 percent of median depending on basin, with continued degradations from prior outlooks. The South Platte basin is higher relative to other basins, with a forecast at 54 percent of median. At the 70 percent exceedance streamflow forecast and 90 percent exceedance streamflow forecast, a majority of points fall near the lowest values in their period of record. Figure 1 highlights the lower range of outcomes. Many of these gauges have observing periods exceeding 100 years, placing drier projections at the bottom in the historical record.  

October brought above-normal precipitation, particularly in southern basins where a significant portion fell as rain and contributed directly to runoff and reservoir storage. Since then, precipitation has remained well below normal across the state and has limited snowpack development during the primary accumulation window. Statewide reservoir storage is near average at 89 percent of median. A portion of this year’s runoff has already occurred during March, and the snowpack entering April is substantially below normal. These conditions limit the volume available for the rest of the runoff period, consistent with projected runoff volumes well below median. Short-term forecasts indicate above average precipitation, which may provide temporary increases in snowpack. Conversely, seasonal Climate Predication Center outlooks favor above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Forecasts remain centered below median and are trending toward the lower exceedance range. 

Colorado’s Snowpack and Reservoir Storage as of April 1, 2026

For more detailed information about mountain snowpack refer to the Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report. For the most up to date information about Colorado snowpack and water supply related information, refer to the Colorado Snow Survey website.  

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw degradations across the areas of the West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, while rainfall during the past week led to improvements in drought-affected areas of the South, Plains, and Midwest. In the Midwest, widespread improvements were made after another round of precipitation during the past week leading to removal of areas of drought on the map in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. In these areas, precipitation totals ranged from 2 to 5 inches. Similarly, significant rainfall was observed in portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana leading to targeted improvements. Out West, generally dry conditions prevailed across much of the region, although modest precipitation totals were observed in areas of the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, Intermountain West, and Southwest with the highest totals logged in California. Despite the much-needed precipitation, conditions deteriorated on the map in Oregon, California, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, and New Mexico. In the Hawaiian Islands, conditions have improved significantly during the past two months due to historic rainfall events observed across the island chain. Elsewhere, dry conditions continued across much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, leading to degradation in conditions from Virginia to Florida.

According to the latest U.S. temperature and precipitation analysis by NOAA’s Center for Environmental Information, March 2026 was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) with average temperatures reaching 9.4 °F above the 20th-century average. For the month, 1,432 counties observed their single warmest March day on record (1950-present). Moreover, the April 2025 to March 2026 period was the warmest 12-month span recorded for CONUS since 1895. In terms of precipitation, the January to March period was the driest on record for CONUS, breaking the previous record set in 1910…

High Plains

On this week’s map, rainfall (1 to 4 inches) during the past week led to targeted improvements in far eastern portions of Kansas and Nebraska. Meanwhile, conditions deteriorated on the map in areas of central and western Kansas, and southwestern South Dakota. For the week, average temperatures were 4 to 10+ °F below normal across much of the region with the greatest departures observed in the Dakotas. Looking at climatological rankings for the past 60-day period (March 7 to April 7), several locations ranked among their driest on record, including Dodge City, KS (driest on record; -1.51 inches); Goodland, KS (driest on record; -1.05); and Manhattan, KS (2nd driest; -1.81 inches). In terms of hydrologic conditions, the U.S. Geological Survey is reporting below to much below normal streamflows across southwestern South Dakota, southern Nebraska, and central/western Kansas…

West

Conditions continued to deteriorate in the region with degradations made across southern Oregon, Northern California, southwestern Montana, northwestern Wyoming, and New Mexico. Despite some precipitation falling across the mountain ranges of the region this week, the snowpack conditions remain extremely poor with the remaining snowpack primarily restricted to the highest elevations. In Colorado, NRCS is reporting statewide SWE at the lowest on record. Historically, median peak SWE in Colorado occurs on April 8, however, this year peak SWE occurred on March 8. In Washington state, the Department of Ecology issued a statewide emergency drought declaration as projected water supplies are expected to be well below normal levels. In the Colorado River Basin, Lake Powell is 24% full, while Lake Mead is 33% full, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Across areas of the Far West, very dry conditions were observed during the past 30-day period (March 7 to April 7), with record to near-record dryness at the following locations: Eugene, OR (10th driest; -2.57 inches); Medford, OR (9th driest; -1.38 inches); Crescent City, CA (2nd driest; -5.58 inches); Mount Shasta, CA (driest on record; -5.35 inches); San Francisco, CA (5th driest; -2.34 inches); Santa Cruz (driest on record; -3.13 inches); Monterey, CA (3rd driest; -2.8 inches), and San Diego, CA (driest on record; -1.24 inches)…

South

On this week’s map, improvements were made in drought-affected areas of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas, while areas of Tennessee saw degradations. In terms of precipitation during the past week, moderate to heavy rainfall accumulations (ranging from 3 to 6 inches) were observed in Texas, Oklahoma, and isolated areas of Louisiana. In Arkansas, some beneficial rains fell in the far-western portion of the state, which led to a boost in streamflow conditions. However, dry soils and significant precipitation deficits remain across the state with the NDMC CMOR tool showing many new impact reports during the past week. Looking at climatological rankings for the past 60-day period (February 7 to April 7), record to near-record dryness was observed in the region, including in Monticello, AR (4th driest; -5.7 inches), and Monroe, LA (7th driest; -6.69 inches). In Texas, Water for Texas (April 7) reports statewide reservoirs at 74% full, with eastern reservoirs in good condition while many western and southern reservoirs remain below normal. Average temperatures for the week were above normal across the region (2 to 12+ °F)…

Looking Ahead

The NWS Weather Prediction Center 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast calls for precipitation accumulations generally ranging from 1 to 4 inches across eastern portions of the Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, with the heaviest totals (locally 3 to 4 inches) along a corridor extending from eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas through the Mid-Mississippi Valley into eastern portions of the Upper Midwest. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, very dry conditions are expected, with little or no precipitation across most areas. The highest totals in the region are expected in isolated areas of eastern Florida, where accumulations may reach 2 to 3 inches. Across the High Plains, light-to-moderate precipitation accumulations ranging from 0.25 to 1.5 inches are expected, with the greatest totals across the eastern extent of the region. In the West, moderate-to-heavy liquid precipitation accumulations are expected across areas of California, particularly along the central and northern Sierra Nevada and coastal ranges, as well as portions of the central and northern Rockies, with lighter to moderate totals across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Dry conditions are expected to prevail across much of the Southwest, including areas of the southeastern California deserts, southern Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico.

The NWS 6–10-Day Temperature Outlook (valid April 14–18, 2026) calls for above-normal temperatures across nearly all of the contiguous U.S., with the highest probabilities across the eastern half of the country, including the Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Below-normal temperatures are limited to areas along the broader U.S.–Canada border region in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, while near-normal temperatures are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest.

In terms of precipitation, the 6–10-Day Outlook calls for above-normal precipitation across the Far West, northern Rockies, New Mexico, Texas, the South (eastern extent), portions of the central and southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Near-normal precipitation is expected across the Intermountain West, Desert Southwest, areas of the South, Mid-Atlantic, and coastal New England. Below-normal precipitation is favored across the Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

Just for grins here’s a slideshow of early April US Drought Monitor maps for the past few years.

UPDATE: March brings spring flowers and an update from NCEI’s Monthly U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Analysis. 🥵 This was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S. Learn more. https://t.co/mlvPCKiXmn pic.twitter.com/uepJiBzOZY

— NOAA NCEI (@NOAANCEI) April 8, 2026

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

April 8, 2026

Will inflows into Lake Powell will drop below those of 2002? You remember that year? A year of heat, drought and fire. An essay about changes and what precipitates them.

Just what we need in Colorado, an El Niño that could cause a hotter-than-average summer for the Western United States and other parts of the globe, continuing into 2027.

Risk of an El Ninõ has been rising, reported the Washington Post on Monday citing the work of a medium-range weather forecasting organization. This one could push global temperatures to record levels, particularly in 2027. “Real potential for the strongest El Ninõ event in 140 years,” wrote Paul Rondy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany.

This, explained the Post, could also yield milder winter temperatures in the United States.

We already know something about warm winters. November was the third warmest November on record in Colorado. December and February broke records, as Colorado state climatologist Russ Schumacher has reported.

Then came March and a records-busting string of days during the “heat dome.” Fort Collins went over 90, a threshold not achieved on average until June. These hottest and earliest thresholds were breached at locations across Colorado.

Across the Colorado River Basin, average daily temperatures during March were the warmest on record. This wreaked havoc on an already so-so or less snowpack.

“March was not … helpful,” consulting climate researcher Jeff Lukas observed drily in a LinkedIn post on Monday. “Record heat for the Upper Colorado River Basin and near-record-low precipitation in what should be one of the snowiest months. The basin-wide snowpack peaked at the earliest date and lowest level on record.”

In Colorado, the snowpack in the Eagle River drainage on April 1 was 21% of the 30-year average. The Roaring Fork River was 26%. On the Yampa it was 20%. On the San Juan, it was 17%. In all these cases and others, the snowpack had fallen by half or more compared to March 1.

Lake Powell, already shrunken to 24% to 25% of capacity, will almost assuredly show even more shoreline. As of Tuesday the reservoir level was down almost 31 feet from a year ago. The Colorado River Basin Forecasting Center on Tuesday predicted 22% of average flows into Powell. Rain and snow could still help, but at least in the next 10 days, they are unlikely.

Two benchmarks, 1977 and 2002, exist for awful-flow years on the Colorado River since Glen Canyon Dam was completed in the 1960s. In 2002, flows into Powell were shockingly low, about 25% of average. The decline after two so-so years was remarkable. Powell, however, had been 94% full to start the century.

Margins have narrowed. Becky Bolinger, a climate researcher in Colorado, pointed out Monday on LinkedIn that the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center currently projects flows April-through-July flows will be a little greater than 2002. “I think it is entirely plausible that the actual volume for 2026 comes in as a new record low,” she wrote.

See the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center slide deck here.

What will the Bureau of Reclamation do? It operates the big dams on the Colorado River, including Glen Canyon. Average releases from Glen Canyon Dam since 2000 have been 8.29 million acre-feet.

One Colorado hydrologist, once again writing on LinkedIn, speculated that the Bureau will reduce the releases from Powell to 6 million acre-feet and conceivably even lower. That would leave Powell above the minimum level needed to produce power, if barely. Power production from 2000 to 2023 declined 17%.

The value of clean power is great. It is part of the portfolio of nearly all electrical cooperatives in the region, including those in Colorado, as well as municipal providers. The greater value, say utility executives, is the ability of the dam’s hydro unit to restart the Western grid, if necessary. This is called a black start. Such a need is unlikely but huge if it were to occur. The giant amounts of battery storage, however, have reduced that importance in the last few years.

Those reduced flows from Powell, however, would likely annoy Arizona and California. The Colorado River Compact of 1922 split the water in the river system between the lower-basin states and Colorado and other upper-basin states. It put a figure on the division: 7.5 million acre-feet. (And more must flow from the upper basin for Mexico and to account for evaporation). In 1922, they thought there was plenty left for Mexico and more yet to flow into the Pacific Ocean. Wisely, in 1948, the upper basin states, in their compact amongst themselves, instead used a percentage.

In question is what exactly the 1922 compact says is the obligation of upper basin states? Must they allow all the water in the Eagle, Yampa and other headwaters rivers be allowed to flow downstream to deliver 7.5 million acre-feet? What if that much water isn’t there?

Colorado River Basin states have notoriously been at an impasse about how to share the shrinking river. The position of Colorado — and other upper-basin states — was pithily captured in a statement by Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s chief negotiator, “We’ve been asked to solve a problem we didn’t create with water we don’t have,” she has said.

“It’s plain: the precarious situation facing the Basin today was fueled by overuse in the Lower Basin,” wrote Nick Peters, the chief system planning and projects officer for Colorado Springs Utilities, in an op-ed published during March in Colorado Politics.

Peters argued against a short-term deal in response to the exigency of this year’s dramatic declines.

In late March, I saw Mitchell at an event in Fort Collins celebrating the 60^th anniversary of the Colorado Water Center. “I follow you to Lamar. I follow you to Grand Junction. I follow you to Silverthorne. I follow you here to get an interview,” I said jokingly.

“You can follow me tomorrow to Durango to the basin roundtable there if you want,” she answered with a smile.

We spoke about the Colorado River, but not on the record.

Two days later, I saw that she had traveled to southwest Colorado while I likely still slumbered. There, she delivered enough fire and brimstone to bring the attendees gathered at the roundtable in Ignacio to their feet in a standing ovation, according to the Durango Herald.

In Fort Collins, the Colorado Water Center dinner had been arranged around tables. I had signed up to be at Jennifer Gimbel’s table. As a director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, she had once represented Colorado in the Colorado River affairs. She is now senior policy scholar at the Water Institute.

“It’s my understanding they were hoping to get a deal for 20 to 30 years. Now they’re looking at five years,” she told me. “They really need to just look at this year.”

I asked her whether the negotiations have been as transparent as they should be. Some have said they are not. We can hear the talking points of Becky Mitchell and other negotiators, but we have not heard about their strategies.

Gimbel pointed me to the frequent appearances of Mitchell at the basin roundtables and other water forum. She’s constantly on the road.

Also relevant, she observed, was a paper that had been published several days previously on The Conservation by Karen Schlatter, director of the Colorado Water Center, and Sharon Megdal, of the University of Arizona. The paper is titled “Why Colorado River negotiations stalled, and why they could resume with the possibility of agreement.”

Schlatter and Megdal traced the trajectory of prior agreements on the Colorado River, pointing to the role of federal leadership in forging agreement.

“In this round of negotiations, federal leadership has been lagging,” they write. ”The Department of the Interior has not made clear what the consequences might be for the states if they fail to agree. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has been without a permanent commissioner since President Donald Trump retook office in January 2025. And federal staff have only recently begun helping to facilitate the discussions.”

They also say this: “We believe that agreement between the seven states is still possible. It may be less effective to bring in a third-party facilitator at this stage in the negotiation process, though, because of the degraded trust, hardened positions and shortage of time.”

Earlier in the evening, a film had been shown that extolled the work of the water center. Colorado State University produced Elwood Mead, after whom the reservoir along the Arizona-Nevada border is named, and others. The current staff of the water center includes Brad Udall, who has deep roots at many levels in the Colorado River Basin

Udall said something that captivated me, in part because it improved upon my own thoughts. I had been toying with an essay that laid out how Colorado during the roughly first 130 years of its existence had been all about putting water to beneficial use. And the last roughly 35 years had been most prominently about reconciling its past with the new limits. I was thinking in part of groundwater mining but also the fact that there really is no water to be had on the surface. There’s less. We’ve hit the wall and it is moving.

In Udall’s thesis — which I learned from him later he has delivered in several slide shows — the history of the Colorado River Basin can be seen in three phases. The 19^th century water law meets 20^th century infrastructure now colliding with 21^st century population and climate change.

And 2026 seems to be a seminal year in that journey. We already have had heat records tumbling left and right, with an El Nino likely to deliver more. We quite possibly will see a record for low inflow into Lake Powell, undercutting 2002.

I remember June 2002 quite well. On that month’s first Sunday I stood atop a mountain in Colorado and saw smoke from the Hayman Fire, which soon became the biggest fire in Colorado history (it’s now ranked 4^th) as well as fire from the Coal Seam Fire near Glenwood Springs. More came later. It was a smoky summer in Colorado.

A few weeks ago, I heard former Gov. Bill Ritter and Bryan Hannegan, the CEO of Holy Cross Energy, fret about the risk of wildfire. The drought, said Ritter, “puts us in a very, very difficult and delicate position.”

State officials, meanwhile, are gearing up to address Front Range forests vulnerable to bark beetles. And at the Public Utilities Commission, Chairman Eric Blank has been openly worrying about whether Colorado will have enough electricity this summer to meet demand if we have unusually hot weather.

Changes mostly occur in increments, but there are times that changes take giant steps. “This year is going to teach us a lot,” said Nathan Coombs, manager of the Conejos Water Conservancy District in the San Luis Valley, when I saw him in Fort Collins. The district depends upon water storage in Platoro Reservoir, located in the San Juan Mountains. The normal inflow into the reservoir in late March, he said, was 12 to 15 cubic feet per second. “This morning, it was 195, because of the heat melting the snow.”

Two days later, at a forum in Alamosa, Coombs, a fourth-generation farmer, further explained the predicament. These earlier flows must be allowed to proceed downstream. Only later in the year will the reservoir be allowed to retain water. But will there be any?

Maybe we will get giant rain and snowstorms yet this spring. In the next 10 days, the forecast is for both wetter and warmer than normal. And, as Coombs and others pointed out, big rainstorms last October left the soil saturated.

October, of course, should bring snow, not rain, to higher elevations. We are living in different times, mostly warmer. Then there’s that elevated risk of an El Niño and a much, much warmer summer ahead of us and the winter beyond that.

Click the link to read the article on the CU Boulder Today website (Lauren Lipuma and Yvaine Ye):

March 31. 2026

For the past weeks, temperatures in Colorado have surged 20 to 30 degrees above average for March, normally one of the state’s snowiest months. 

That’s on top of an unusually warm and dry winter for the American Southwest, a region already grappling with long-term water shortages since around 2000. In Colorado, snowpack sits at about 40% of normal levels, among the lowest since comprehensive modern records began roughly four decades ago.

In parts of the southern Colorado River Basin, a 250,000-square-mile watershed spanning seven states in the southwest, snowpack has dropped to less than one-third of normal. The basin provides water for 40 million people and 5.5 million acres of farmland.

Snowpack acts like frozen water towers, said Ben Livneh, associate professor in the department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering. As temperatures rise and the Southwest enters its typically hot and dry spring and summer months, melting snow provides about 80% of the water used by downstream communities in the Colorado River Basin. 

In response to the snow drought, Denver’s water authority recently declared a Stage 1 drought, the first drought alert the city has issued since the summer of 2013. Other Front Range cities are considering similar measures. 

“In Colorado, our peak snowpack happens around mid-April, so there is still a chance that we could get more snow,” said Livneh, who’s also the director of the Western Water Assessment (WWA) at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). According to the National Weather Service, a storm is bringing precipitation to Colorado this week, with the potential for a few inches of accumulation in the mountains. “But at this point, it does look like we have a long way to go to catch up.”

CU Boulder Today sat down with Livneh to talk about the impact of a snow drought on Colorado communities, whether drought is the new normal and what individuals can do. 

How dry is it?

Colorado lies in a mountainous region far from the ocean, so our climate naturally varies a lot. As a result, it’s not uncommon to see big swings between wet years and dry years.

Right now, we are in a very dry period, and the numbers are pretty stark. There’s barely any snow on mountains in lower elevations, and some snowpack could melt early because of the warm weather. When we look ahead to the amount of water expected to flow into our reservoirs, which would be the water people actually get to use, the current forecasts fall among the lowest we’ve seen since the early 1980s when the detailed snow measurements began.

How does this year compare with previous drought years?

There were some years that were drier, like 1977 and 1981. But those years weren’t as warm as this year. Over the past 40 years, since we’ve had continuous observation data, 2002 and 2012 were also warm with low precipitation, but they weren’t as dry as this year.

We have a lot of systems in place that were specifically designed to handle individual bad years, like these big, impressive reservoirs. But we’ve been in a dry period for the past 25 years, and every dry year puts additional stress on our infrastructure.

What could be causing this snow drought?

We’re currently in the warmest 25-year period on record, and warming is one of the clearest signals of recent climatic changes. When it’s warmer, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. 

At the same time, the climate in our region naturally swings between wetter and drier decades. It’s almost like a pendulum that shifts every 20 or 30 years.

What may be happening now is that those two things— climate change and natural fluctuations— are overlapping, creating something of a perfect storm for this year.

What is the WWA doing to help?

WWA is working to support decision makers to best manage their water, based on what is actually available, as well as what is forecasted in the Colorado River Basin. 

Much of our regional economy relies on water, from the ski industry to food growers and power generators. The stress from drought is widespread. 

Our region’s planning and treaties in the past were based on assumptions about historical conditions. Now we’re trying to figure out whether these dry conditions are a drought or perhaps closer to the long-term normal conditions. 

We are also trying to get a better sense of what mountain communities are experiencing and what types of information they need, because many of them rely on the snowpack and snow melt as their primary reservoir for water.

Should people be worried about water shortages right now?

This is really a large-scale phenomenon, so if anything, I would encourage people to get curious about the science and what we can say about the current conditions. Indoor water use doesn’t consume very much, and cities are not really at risk of running out of water. But people should be mindful not to waste water outdoors. Pay attention to city rules for outdoor water use, like when you can turn on your sprinklers and water your lawn.

Other than that, I encourage people to go outside. This is certainly a big departure from what we think Colorado winters should be like, but it also offers opportunities for people to bike to work more often, or spend more time outdoors doing things they might not otherwise be able to do.

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Public Radio website (Sam Brasch). Here’s an excerpt:

The old-school art of snow tracking

Metal signs mark the survey site in a patch of forest above the cabin. Once the team arrived, Mike Ardison, a hydrologic technician for the Colorado Snow Survey, unloaded a green trundle off his back, then unwrapped it to reveal sections of a hollow, aluminum tube. It extends to roughly eight feet long once he fits the pieces together…To measure the snow levels, Domonkos and Ardison work their way along the snow course, dropping the tube at a series of set points along the path. A column of snow captured inside reveals the height, then the pair hang the tube from a spring-powered milk scale to clock the weight. Digital scales might be more accurate, but Ardison said their batteries wouldn’t last long in normal winter temperatures…

Crouched over a notebook, [Brian] Domonkos punched a calculator to arrive at a figure for the site. He let out a sigh when he arrived at the final number: 2.2 inches of snow-water equivalent, less than half the previous record low measured on the same date in 1977…Other measurements taken at snow courses around April 1 were just as alarming. Out of the 64 sites in Colorado with at least 50 years of data, 60 reported either record-low snow levels or tied the lowest on record…Those results confirm 2026 as the worst year for Colorado snowpack in recorded history, said Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and Colorado’s state climatologist. A lack of historical precedent means it’s harder to fully predict the impact of such low water levels. Schumacher, however, expects reservoir levels to rapidly decline in the summer and fall. Fire risk is harder to predict, but he said major wildfires usually appear in years when the snowpack is lower and melts early. 

“We’re maybe in one of these liminal spaces where you can see what’s coming, but it’s not here yet,” Schumacher said. “And, yeah, that’s a challenging situation.”